EAST REGION: UNC heads a loaded bracket

Tar Heels are the favorites, but it won't be an easy road to the Final Four

Breakdown: All of the NCAA tournament committee's little biases - lack of respect for mid-majors, a general disdain for the Big Ten, a minor dismissal of Tennessee - landed like boulders in this bracket, leading most pundits to believe it's the toughest of the bunch. The way the S-Curve is supposed to work, the bracket with the No. 1 overall seed - that's North Carolina - should have the weakest No. 2 seed, No. 4 seed, No. 6 seed, and so on through the even-numbered teams. Consider the even-numbered teams include UT, Washington State, Oklahoma and Indiana, it's debatable whether that actually happened.

What this bracket includes is a total contrast in styles.

UNC and Tennessee are arguably the nation's fastest teams. Both teams rely on speed, steals, defense and blink-and-you'll-miss them runs of 10 points or more. No. 5 seed Notre Dame can keep up with either one of them, and has a versatile center in Luke Harangody. No. 3 seed Louisville also likes to run, but prefers to grind its opponents a little, too. Then you've got the No. 4 seed Cougars, whose coach, Tony Bennett has migrated the suffocating defense his father, Dick, employed at Wisconsin. Butler has a similar slow-it-down style. Matchups will matter more than team names or individual players. Tempo is the real story in the East.

Five best players:North Carolina F Tyler Hansbrough, Indiana G Eric Gordon, Indiana F D.J. White, Harangody, Tennessee G Chris Lofton. Notice how two of those players are from the No. 8 seed? We'll get back to that in a minute.

Best Frontcourt:North Carolina, thanks to "Psycho T"

Best Backcourt:Tennessee, by a hair.

Best Shooter:Lofton

Best Big Man:Hansbrough, but Harangody and White are right there with him.

X-Man:Gordon. He's a likely NBA Lottery pick. Gordon is unafraid to drive into traffic and will shoot from just about anywhere. He's also an unabashed ball hog. He could sink the Hoosiers, or lead them to an extraordinary upset in the second round

Best Coach:Rick Pitino, Louisville. A slight nod over Roy Williams.

"Overseeded":Oklahoma seems a bit high given its accomplishments during the year. Granted, the Sooners had some injuries, but those little hurts haven't exactly healed yet.

"Underseeded":Butler and Indiana. The Bulldogs are casualties of the bias the NCAA Tournament committee shows to mid-major programs. Butler gets to play in Birmingham against No. 10 seed South Alabama. Indiana, meanwhile, could probably beat Oklahoma and Notre Dame six or seven times out of 10.

Scouting Reports:

No. 1 North Carolina (32-2)Despite the marquee record, this isn't necessarily a vintage Tar Heels squad. Hansbrough's a real anchor, and Ty Lawson's a spark plug at point guard, but UNC is vulnerable, as its last two games in the ACC Tournament showed. Opponents can score on the Heels, and, too often, games come down to whether UNC can make several 3-pointers in a row. The team more or less relies on Hansbrough to get 10 free throw attempts a game - not a given in the Big Dance, where refs swallow their whistles more often. Carolina is good - but not as good as that 2005 national title team, and not, arguably, as good as last season's team. It's no lock to emerge from the region.

No. 2 Tennessee (29-4)A more complete team than the one that held the No. 2 seed in 2006, or the team that blew a Sweet 16 game against Ohio State last year. Why? Transfer forward Tyler Smith, who teams up with Wayne Chism to give the Volunteers an inside presence that balances out Lofton and guard JuJuan Smith, who fire at will from 3-point range. UT is fun to watch and tough to beat, but it plays too little perimeter defense, allowing wholly mediocre teams to score in the 70s and 80s without much effort. Ultimately, no lead is too safe. An Elite Eight game with North Carolina would be some treat.

No. 3 Louisville (24-8)The Cardinals are classic Pitino: Athletic, fast, irritating (both the opponent and, sometimes their own fans) and occasionally out of control. Louisville has enough size to challenge big teams, and enough depth to play a three-guard lineup.

No. 4 Washington State (24-8)Great defensive squad that simply can't handle taller teams, as five of eight losses were to UCLA and Stanford. Tony Bennett's style eats opposing guards for lunch - no cheap 3-pointers. You'd better have talented "bigs" who can attract defenders and kick out of double teams. On offense, WSU is less challenged than you might think; the teams shoots 3-pointers and free throws quite well.

No. 5 Notre Dame (24-7)Fun team to watch, but defense is strictly optional. Hot shooting guards can beat this team. Harangody's stats (20.8 points and 10.2 rebounds) are impressive, but he takes 16 shots a game, too. Irish flat out choked against Winthrop last year, failing to wake up until late in the second half. First-round foe George Mason is very similar in style and toughness.

No. 6 Oklahoma (22-11)Big, rugged, sloppy-looking bunch that hasn't played all that well since the new year (11-8 overall). Texas and Kansas demolished them. Physical defenders inside. OU's two best players - freshman forward Blake Griffin and center Longar Longar - are less than 100 percent. As a group, the Sooners have more turnovers than assists. OU is hardly better than Baylor or Kansas State; it's a mystery why its seed is five slots higher than either team.

No. 7 Butler (29-3)Controlled, poised mid-major that's arguably two or three seeds too low. Tough out for anybody given its deliberate style of zone defense and set offensive plays. Opponents have to be willing to work for good shots. Bench goes nine deep. Guard Mike Green is a slasher who draws fouls and free throws, while guard A.J. Graves and forward Pete Campbell knock down 3-pointers. Could blow up a bracket.

No. 8 Indiana (25-7)Turmoil-ridden squad that lost its coach, Kelvin Sampson, and some of its fight at the end of the season, when it lost three of six. IU's best player, freshman guard Eric Gordon (21.5 points per game), is an unaplogetic, NBA-bound ball hog. He barrels through traffic, sometimes getting stripped, often getting fouled. Senior center D.J White (17.3 points, 10.4 rebounds) usually cleans up the mess. It's a team of great free-throw shooters (76.3 percent). The Hoosiers could flame out in the first round, or make a serious run to the Final Four. Under the right conditions, they have the talent to take out North Carolina, Tennessee, the whole lot.

No. 9 Arkansas (22-11)Old times in Fayetteville, as the Razorbacks have returned to running, trapping, shooting and careening head on into opponents. Lots of turnovers (16 per game), lots of steals (seven per game), lots of fouls, lots of 3-pointers (17 attempts per game). Arkansas aims for chaos, and if the opponent buys in, it's a sloppy, tight contest to the Hogs' advantage. Matches up beautifully with Indiana. Not so well with North Carolina.

No. 10 South Alabama (26-6)The Jaguars got a tough matchup in Butler; it would have been easier for USA to get a defense-optional opponent that engaged in the kind of high-scoring affair this team wants.USA takes 18 3-pointers a game and 25 free throws. The partisan crowd in Birmingham, Ala., might help, but the Jaguars aren't just going to be able to dial up open jumpers against Butler. A possible second-round game against Tennessee could be a doozy.

No. 11 St. Joseph's (21-12)The Hawks spent the last half of the season on the bubble in a tough, competitive conference. Now they a get plum first-round foe in Oklahoma. St. Joe's can score on anybody, and forward Pat Calathes is a difficult matchup because of 6-10 height ans his shooting ability.

No. 12 George Mason (23-10)Two of the players from the Patriots' 2006 run to the Final Four - Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas - still remain. GMU's best strength is its commitment to Thomas' post-up game; this team doesn't need to "gun it" to play with the big boys. The defense that so flustered North Carolina and Michigan State in 2006 is still there, but the offense is not.

No. 13 Winthrop (22-11)A defensive-minded, irritating team that will more than meet its match in the Wazzu. The Eagles routinely play 10 or 11 guys, thriving on athleticism and steals (8.5 per game). Horrible at the free throw line (just 59 percent as a team). Caught ND napping last year, but shouldn't give the Cougars too much grief.

No. 14 Boise State (25-8)Hello, track meet! The Broncos average 20 3-point attempts per game and make 40 percent of them. BSU has some size, though, too - senior forwards Reggie Larry and Matt Nelson combine to average 35 points and 17 rebounds. The Broncos harbor no illusions about their defense - they don't play any. All they can try to do is outrun Louisville to 100 points. That what it'll take.

No. 15 American (21-11) Small, turnover-prone and wholly reliant upon 3-pointers. Tennessee will ground it into dust.

No. 16 Play-in opponent.A fattened lamb for Tar Rams of UNC.

First-round upset:No. 11 seed St. Joseph's is equal to, if not better than, Oklahoma. If you're sneaking peeks Winthrop and George Mason…they aren't what they used to be.

Bracket Busters:Butler can beat any team that doesn't tower over it. Notre Dame has the firepower to stun North Carolina. Indiana is a freight train wreck, but capable of a run.

Best Bets:North Carolina's the safest choice, but the Tar Heels don't exactly have a cushy road to the Final Four. Tennessee is a weird matchup for anybody, and Louisville surely has the talent when it doesn't make jaw-dropping mental errors. 

 

Email Samuel McKewon at sam@ne.statepaper.com

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