Cool Hand Hagel?
Analysis
By ED HOWARD
March 13, 2007
There was this scene in the classic 1967 film Cool Hand Luke, where Paul Newman bluffs some other poker-playing prison inmate out of a pot.
It turned out Newman had nothing. The assembled criminals seemed astonished and/or impressed, although the losers were understandably annoyed.
“Yeah, well, sometimes nuthin’ can be a real cool hand,” Newman told his southern prison camp admirers.
That’s when the hulking, dumb-as-a-gerbil George Kennedy character affectionately put the “Cool Hand Luke” handle on Newman.
Eventually, Kennedy proclaimed that ol’ Luke was “a natural born world-shaker!”
That was shortly after Newman was shot to death in the wake of one smart-ass remark too many. Kennedy recalled Newman, to the end, was flashing “dat Luke smile.”
Fast forward 40 years.
Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, perhaps a prisoner of his own ambition, mounted a podium at the University of Nebraska – Omaha amid nationwide speculation that he would show his cards in the ongoing game of Republican presidential politics.
His was the hand the political world awaited. The most outspoken Republican critic of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, Hagel has called it the biggest foreign policy blunder since Viet Nam; a mismanaged thing unworthy of its cost in American lives, treasure and prestige.
The bloviation started with dry, self-effacing humor, then a segue to semi-somber demeanor. Hagel eventually announced he had … absolutely nothing to show and not much to say. This, despite months of contemplation during which he held those career cards close to his bosom, and occasionally looked up to indicate he would soon have an announcement.
Why would the guy come all the way to Omaha, with some ultimately disgruntled scribes in tow, to tell a national television audience that he had nothing new to tell them?
He might yet run for president, or seek a third Senate term, or leave public office. There is too much partisanship, absolutist ideology and the usual parade of horribles in Washington.
Hagel told one among the disgruntled journalistic assemblage that he made the non-announcement because he had so often promised to make an announcement about his plans.
What he said in other than pertinent part:
"I am here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year.”
In somewhat pertinent part, responding to a question:
“I am not an anti-war candidate.”
Although he didn’t make legitimate news Monday, someone should offer this BULLETIN to the senator:
If Chuck Hagel is not the perceived anti-war candidate, there is absolutely no practical reason for him to be a candidate. None. His call to get out of Iraq stands between him and the status of a small-state senator whose national name recognition hovers somewhere between zilch and Rulo.
The Hagel line that preceded the one where he said a real decision on his political future would come later:
“America is facing its most divisive and difficult issue since Vietnam – the war in Iraq, an issue that I have been deeply involved in. I want to keep my focus on helping find a responsible way out of this tragedy, [emphasis added] and not divert my energy, efforts and judgment with competing political considerations.”
Define responsible? It means wiggle room.
(Bob Dylan said “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows,” but when it comes to political winds, most of the Potomac crowd rely on pollsters.)
By delaying announcement of his ultimate plans, Hagel might prolong his enhanced desirability as a guest on the Sunday talk shows. He might maintain some leverage in the Senate. He won’t have to confront the fact that raising big money would probably be harder than talking Hillary Clinton out of a big wet smooch under December’s mistletoe. (Not that such a notion would cross his mind. Hagel is decidedly in love with his wife, and certainly not fond of Mrs. Clinton in the mistletoe sense.)
Hagel actually tried to finesse the anti-war thing.
He said he wasn’t “anti-war” in general. There were times when American force had to be deployed, he said, but in a “smart” way, and wisely. He didn’t want to sound like some squish on the issue of national security. The right war would be okay, if war was required.
Hagel’s juggling should not surprise many.
Remember when he loudly supported a tough-worded (but nonbinding) Senate resolution opposing the Bush military buildup in Iraq – and then voted to block debate on the resolution? A few days later he was on the Senate floor, demanding a vote on the very same resolution; the one he voted to filibuster.
Hagel is popular among many voters, and getting national media coverage, because he has said it is time to get out of Iraq. Those potential supporters might be willing to ignore his super-conservative positions on virtually everything else – from reproductive choice to the minimum wage to taxes to the environment – because of opposition to the war.
The point is that any attempt to assuage the pro-war element of the party is as likely as a Dick Cheney acknowledgment of civil war in Baghdad.
Hagel’s entry into the battle for the GOP presidential nomination would nonetheless set the context of the campaign; because of the war’s unpopularity and because of his own background as a war hero and the Senate’s biggest supporter of Bush on virtually every other issue.
At the Politico website Carleton College political science professor Steven Schier questioned Hagel’s action Monday.
“First impressions are important in politics," Schier said. “This is one of those situations where you're creating a first impression with a lot of people and it's an odd impression to create."
As Hagel ended the not-quite-news conference, a reported squeezed in a last question, literally as Hagel was stepping off the podium. When would he make a bona fide announcement on his future.
Hagel was smiling when he said “Before St. Patrick’s Day of next year!”
Some might have thought it looked like “dat Luke smile!”
How about Hagel and the entire GOP presidential primary?
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